A retirement budget can be accurate and still be incomplete.
The monthly bills may be listed correctly, but the plan can miss the expenses that arrive unevenly: a roof, dental work, help for an adult child, a larger tax bill, a move or several years of care. These costs are not truly unexpected. They are simply hard to place in a normal month.
I think the solution is to stop forcing every retirement cost into one average number. Build the budget in layers.
Layer one: the costs that do not retire
Housing remains a major expense even after a mortgage is paid. Property taxes, insurance, utilities, maintenance and association fees can continue to rise. The Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies reported that nearly 11.2 million older-adult households were cost burdened in 2021, meaning they spent at least 30% of income on housing.4 A paid-off home improves cash flow, but it does not make housing free.
The same is true for transportation, food, communication and insurance. Some work-related expenses decline, but other costs take their place. More time at home can increase utilities and home projects. More travel can increase transportation and dining. The retirement budget should reflect the life the household intends to live, not a generic percentage of pre-retirement income.
Layer two: healthcare and long-term care
Medicare is valuable, but it does not remove premiums, deductibles, copays, dental care, vision care, hearing services or every prescription cost. Fidelity's 2026 Retiree Health Care Cost Estimate estimated that a 65-year-old retiring in 2026 could spend an average of $185,500 on healthcare and medical expenses throughout retirement.1 It is an estimate, not a bill, and an individual result could be much higher or lower.
Long-term care belongs in a separate conversation. Home care, assisted living and nursing care are not captured by an ordinary medical budget, and Medicare coverage is limited.2 The plan may involve insurance, dedicated assets, family care, home modifications or a combination. What matters is deciding who would provide care, where it would happen and which assets would be used first.
Layer three: taxes and benefit interactions
Retirement does not end tax planning. Traditional retirement-account withdrawals generally create ordinary taxable income. Capital gains, Social Security benefits, pensions, business income and charitable gifts may interact in the same year. The IRS notes that required minimum distributions generally begin at age 73 under current rules for affected account owners.3
Income can also affect Medicare costs. For 2026, Medicare uses modified adjusted gross income from the 2024 tax return to determine whether income-related adjustments apply.2 This is where a distribution that looked straightforward in January can become a more complicated conversation in December. The two-year lookback is why a large distribution or business-sale year deserves coordination rather than a surprise premium later.
Layer four: family support
Many retirees expect to help children or grandchildren. The challenge is that support often starts informally: a few months of rent, tuition, a vehicle, a wedding or help during a job change. One gift may be affordable. A pattern may not be.
Set a family-support policy before the request arrives. Decide which purposes the household wants to fund, the annual limit, whether gifts are equal or need-based and which account will supply the money. A boundary is easier to explain when it was created in a calm moment.
Layer five: one-time transitions
Retirement can include several expensive transitions: replacing a vehicle, renovating a home, moving, furnishing a second home, closing a business, helping a parent or adapting a house for accessibility. These costs may not repeat every year, but they should not be hidden inside the monthly budget.
Create a separate reserve schedule. List likely projects over the next five to ten years, assign a rough timing range and update the estimate annually. The number will not be perfect. It will be more useful than pretending the expense does not exist.
A hypothetical example
Suppose a couple's recurring retirement expenses are $8,000 per month. Their plan shows that the portfolio can support $96,000 a year, so they feel comfortable. But the monthly figure excludes $18,000 for annual travel, a $35,000 vehicle in year three, expected help for a grandchild's education and a possible move within seven years.
Nothing in that list is an emergency. It is a series of choices. Once those choices are added, the couple may decide to work one more year, reduce the travel budget, earmark cash for the vehicle or change the timing of the move. That is not bad news. It is what planning is supposed to reveal before the money is spent.
Build the budget in three views
Start with annual base spending: the recurring cost of running the household. Then separate flexible spending such as travel, gifts and hobbies. Those expenses still matter, but they can often adjust when markets, income or family priorities change.
Finally, build a reserve schedule for healthcare shocks, care needs, vehicles, home projects, moves and other irregular costs. The schedule gives large expenses a timing range and a funding source instead of hiding them inside an average month.
Then test the plan under different conditions: higher inflation, a poor market early in retirement, one spouse living longer, care needs and less family support than expected. Stress testing cannot predict the future. It can show which decisions have room and which ones are carrying too much weight.
The goal is not to make retirement look expensive. It is to make the plan honest. Give recurring costs, flexible choices and large transitions separate places in the budget. Review them every year and after a major life event. A clear plan can adapt. An incomplete average usually cannot.
1 Fidelity, 2026 Retiree Health Care Cost Estimate. fidelity.com
2 Medicare.gov, 2026 Medicare Costs. medicare.gov
3 Internal Revenue Service, Required Minimum Distributions FAQs. irs.gov
4 Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, Housing America's Older Adults 2023: Key Facts. jchs.harvard.edu